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Eagles vs Hawks Climax Series Preview

The fireworks begin on Friday night here in Sendai as the Pacific League Climax Series gets underway!  I'll be at the game so I'll try to take as many photos and perhaps a couple videos from Kleenex Stadium.  But before all that let's break down this best-of-three game series.  I'll do something a little different and play Devil's Advocate for a change, analyzing why either team should come out victorious and on to the second round.

Overall the teams match up pretty evenly.

Head to Head

First off let's take a look at the head-to-head team statistics.  As you can see both teams match up quite evenly against each other.

The only significant differences are in bases on balls and team defense. Rakuten's pitchers gave up nine more walks while Softbank's defense committed ten more errors.  In particular, Softbank's left fielder Jose Ortiz is a below average defender.  All the other categories are basically a wash.

The Eagles had a 7-5 record at home against the Hawks this season.

Weather Forecast

Here are the forecasted weather conditions in Sendai for the series:

Friday the 16th - Partly cloudy, HI/LO Temperature 20/9°C, 20% chance of rain.

Saturday the 17th - Cloudy, 21/13°C, 40% chance of rain.

Sunday the 18th - Cloudy, 20/12°C, 40% chance of rain.

In the event that one of the games is postponed due to inclement weather, the make-up game will be played on Monday the 19th.

Why the Hawks will win the series

Bullpen - Even without Brian Falkenborg (6-0, 23 Holds, 1.74 ERA), who's out with an elbow injury, Softbank's relief pitchers are heads and shoulders above Rakuten's.

Takahiro Mahara (3-1, 3 SV, 1.86 ERA vs Rakuten) was second in the Pacific League with 29 saves and averaged well over a strikeout per inning.  Tadashi Settsu (1-0, 5 Holds, 0.71 ERA vs Rakuten) led the PL in holds with 34.  The Eagles made Settsu look like Nolan Ryan, as they struck out 20 times in just 12.2 innings.

The Long Ball - The Hawks have injuries to their batting lineup as well.  Despite the news that Matsunaka and his 23 home runs are going to miss the entire postseason as he undergoes knee surgery, the Hawks still have plenty of bats that can put the ball out of the park.  Catcher Hidenori Tanoue led the team with 26 HR and provides an offensive threat in the bottom half of the lineup.  LF Jose Ortiz reached the 20 HR mark this season, while 1B Hiroki Kokubo and RF Hitoshi Tamura hit 18 and 17 home runs respectively.

While the Eagles have the PL's number 2 slugger in DH Takeshi Yamasaki (39 HR), he's a mere shell of his former self and has been in a horrific slump for almost two months.  After Nomura suspended LF Todd Linden and his twelve home runs from the lineup, only two other batters have double digits in the long ball - 1B Fernando Seguignol (14) and CF Teppei Tsuchiya (12).

Rakuten Drama - While the circus surrounding Nomura's contract didn't appear to affect the team's performance, the most recent chapter in this soap opera has the potential to be devastating to the Eagles' Nippon Series aspirations.

I think that almost everyone, including Todd Linden, would agree that his sarcastic comment to Nomura was the result of a momentary lapse of reason, something said in the heat of the moment. However, I feel that everyone (except Nomura and perhaps his coaches), especially the fans, can agree that the punishment far outweighed the crime. It's like chopping off an ear to spite the face. The Eagles already have a huge void in the 4-spot in the form of the player formerly known as Takeshi Yamasaki, and to remove one of their hottest players (and legitimate power threats) for a single offhand comment is just plain pigheaded.

To paraphrase an old saying, "No one person is bigger than the team." I guess nobody remembered to tell Nomura that the expression applies to managers too. There's a time and place for everything, and Nomura picked the wrong time to suspend one of his best players, on the eve of the team's first ever playoff series. If Rakuten's pitching can't silence the Hawks' bats, the home team will definitely have problems generating offense.

I suppose that only now we'll see just how great "Nomura Baseball" is.

Why the Eagles will win the series

Starting Pitching - Few teams in all of NPB can send out a trio of pitchers as strong (albeit playoff untested) as the Eagles. The troika of right-handers, 28-year-old Hisashi Iwakuma, 21-year-old Masahiro "Ma-kun" Tanaka, and 25-year-old Satoshi Nagai combined for 41 wins this season, most in the Pacific League.

The veteran of the staff and WBC star Iwakuma (13-6, 5 CG, 3.25 ERA) gets the nod to start the series, probably facing off against Softbank's ace Toshiya Suiguchi (15-5, 6 CG, 2.36 ERA). Since this is only a best-of-three series, manager Nomura has some wiggle room on choosing his Game 2 starter depending on what transpires on Friday. Should the Eagles win the first game, perhaps Nagai (13-7, 5 CG, 3.42 ERA) will get the start over Tanaka. Nagai has a 5-1 record versus the Hawks this year, and if Rakuten takes a slim lead late into the game, Nomura has the option of going "all-in" and using Tanaka (15-6, 6 CG, 2.33 ERA, 1 SV) as the closer. Ma-kun would undoubtably be a better choice to close out a potentially series winning game than any of their current relievers. If Softbank wins Game 1 though, Tanaka will start on Saturday afternoon, no questions asked.

Since the bullpen is as reliable as a $2 umbrella in a hurricane, it's absolutely paramount that the Eagles get quality outings by their starters.  These are the three best pitchers on the staff, and they're gonna have to go deep in the game to give Rakuten a chance to win.

Home Field Advantage - The Eagles took seven of twelve against the Hawks at home.  I'm curious to see how loud Kleenex Stadium will be on Friday night. The Sendai home crowd is notoriously quieter than other stadiums around the league. This is partly because instruments are banned due to the fact that there is a hospital nearby, but part of it is due to the fans themselves.  I remember during interleague play this summer the visiting team's fans were much louder and more boisterous than Rakuten's.  If the fans truly want to act as a true "#10" then they're gonna have to scream their lungs out to support their team.  Having their own homes to sleep in as well can't hurt either.

Nomura's Last Stand - To be honest, I'm not sure how much support the exiting manager has from his players anymore; they're more than likely playing for their fellow teammates instead of for Nomura.  His modus operandi of late seems to take credit when they win and dish out the blame when they lose.  He's made some strange in-game decisions over the past month or so, which I'm sure he'd easily explain away if the media had the stones to ask the tough questions.  Now that he finally knows that he won't be coming back as manager next year it's time to put up or shut up.  Let's see if #19 can add a wrinkle or two to his repertoire.  Does the old dog have any new tricks?  He's gonna need everything to go right if he wants to keep his season going.

Prediction: Hawks in 3

There are a lot of "ifs" in this series, and unfortunately most of them are about the Eagles.  If Yamasaki wakes up from his hibernation... If the starters can go 7, 8, or even 9 innings... If the bullpen doesn't implode ... If Linden didn't get suspended... If the team doesn't crumble in their first-ever playoff series...  Add to that the drama surrounding the team and the way the regular season ended and things don't look so positive for the Eagles.  In a BO3 series however anything is possible.  Including me being wrong.

GO EAGLES!!!