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Climax Series Stage 2 Preview, Part 1

Photo © www.climax-pa.jp

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Stage 2 of the Pacific League Climax Series gets underway this Wednesday at the Sapporo Dome, home of the Nippon Ham Fighters.  Just like the crazy CFL compared to the NFL, the playoff format is slightly different in Japan.  Since the Fighters are the higher seed, they will not only get home field advantage for all games, but will even begin the series with a 1 win advantage.  This means that the Fighters will only have to win three games to advance to the Nippon Series, while the Eagles will have to win four.  It won't be easy for either team though.  There are a couple of interesting subplots that have been brewing since the end of the regular season for both teams, let's take a look at those first before diving into the head-to-head numbers.

Photo © Yahoo! Japan

Yu Darvish Out

The Fighters' ace, and perhaps the best pitcher not playing in MLB, will miss at least all of the Climax Series against Rakuten, and is doubtful to pitch in the Nippon Series should the Fighters defeat the Eagles.  The 23-year-old was having yet another outstanding year when he was sidelined near the end of September with shoulder fatigue and a sore back.  Despite missing his final three starts of the regular season, 5-year pro led the PL in ERA (1.73), was second in wins and complete games with 15 and 8 respectively, and fourth overall in strikeouts with 167.  Needless to say his loss is a huge blow to the Fighters considering the two starts he would have pitched in this best-of-seven series.

Photo © Yahoo! Japan

Todd Linden Still Out?

From what I can make from this Japanese article (Google translation here), LF Todd Linden will not be included in the active roster for the series in Sapporo.  Last week Linden met with Rakuten manager Nomura to apologize for his sarcastic comments toward him, ironically in a late-season game versus the Fighters.  He was suspended for the duration of the 1st Stage series against Softbank, and the general consensus among the fans (and level-headed, sane people not drunk on power) was that he would return to the lineup if the Eagles progressed to the second round of the playoffs.  Perhaps since the Eagles disposed of the Hawks so easily last week, coupled with the fact that the Fighters are now without their best pitcher, Nomura feels that he doesn't need a switch-hitting, .292 batting, solid defensive outfielder that can hit for power.  Because those types of players grow on trees you know.  Hopefully my translation of the article is incorrect, just as my prediction for the Eagles/Hawks series was.

UPDATE: Linden will in fact be traveling with the team to Hokkaido this week, so it's looking more and more like we might see him in action during the series.

Without Darvish, how different would this be?

Head to Head Statistics

Taking a look at the chart on the right, things look pretty bleak for the Eagles, wouldn't you think?  Despite having an almost even record, the Fighters have large advantages in hits, runs, batting average, and earned run average. The Fighters were 6-5 at the Sapporo Dome versus the Eagles this season.  Without Darvish however, the Fighters' starting pitchers will truly be tested, especially against the surging Eagles rotation.

Fighters Starting Rotation

While losing Darvish appears catastrophic on the outside, he actually didn't fare too well against the Eagles this season, with no wins and two losses.  31-year-old Masaru Takeda (10-9, 3.55) will almost surely get the start in Game 1 (or is it Game 2?) on Wednesday night.  Despite the mediocre record the lefty dominated Rakuten this year, winning five out of his six starts with a 2.0o ERA.  The 4th-year pro is also an outstanding 7-1 at the Sapporo Dome this season.

Another left-handed pitcher, Tomoya Yagi (9-3, 2.88), is probably Nippon Ham's next best bet against Rakuten.  The 26-year-0ld went 2-1 both against the Eagles and at the Sapporo Dome.

From the right side, Keisaku Itokazu (4-5, 4.56) might be the Fighters' best hope against the Eagles.  He's the only other starter to have a winning record versus Rakuten, albeit just 1-0.

Eagles Starting Rotation

Whoever ends up starting for Nippon Ham, they're going to be in tough against Rakuten's triple threat of Hisashi Iwakuma (13-6, 3.25), Masahiro Tanaka (15-6, 2.33), and Satoshi Nagai (13-7, 3.42).  The trio combined to collect seven wins against two losses versus the Fighters this year.  Their best arms are also throwing very well right now, as Iwakuma and Tanaka both threw complete game victories against the Hawks in the 1st Stage.

After that it gets a little dicey for both teams.  The Eagles will probably look to rookie Hiromichi Fujiwara (5-4, 4.04) to start after their top three pitchers.  Nomura stated that he's going to pitch Iwakuma and Tanaka on 5 days rest, meaning Iwakuma would start on Thursday and Tanaka on Friday.  This doesn't make any sense to me (although what Nomura decides rarely does).  If you pitch 'Kuma and Ma-kun on 4 days rest, which is regular in MLB playoffs, you can have Iwakuma start Game 1 on Wednesday and still have him available to go if the series reaches the 6th and deciding game next Monday.  Is Iwakuma tired from his complete game win last Friday?  Perhaps, but Nomura should have been looking ahead to the 2nd stage schedule.  It didn't make any sense keeping Iwakuma in the game when the score was 11-4, other than to get some "complete game glory" that's Nomura's already stated Iwakuma's not interested in.

Starting Rotation Edge::EAGLES

Even with Darvish in the lineup Nippon Ham would have a hard time matching up with Rakuten's triple threat.

Eagles Bullpen

The bullpen has been a thorn in the side of the Eagles all season long.  They've gone through at least three different closers (Aoyama, Fukumori, Koyama), their setup man Kawagishi looks like he's going to cry every time they stick him out there, and their middle relief is just plain atrocious.  Lefty Kanahisa Arime has plunked batters 8 times, including twice on the first pitch thrown after entering the game.  With friends like these...

Fighters Bullpen

The Fighters on the other hand have the PL's premier closer in Hisashi Takeda (3-0, 34 SV, 1.33 ERA).  None of their primary relievers have ERA's over 4.00, while half of Rakuten's relief pitchers have ERA's over 5.00.

Bullpen Edge::FIGHTERS

You've got a better chance at winning the lottery than guessing how Rakuten's relievers will perform.  You can bet on one thing however, it'll be an adventure every time out.

That's all for the pitching.  Tomorrow I'll look at the batting and give my prediction on the series.

Related posts:

1. Climax Series Stage 2 Preview, Part 2
2. Eagles vs Hawks Climax Series Preview
3. Eagles vs Hawks Climax Series Game 1 Preview
4. Eagles vs Hawks Climax Series Game 2 Preview
5. Series Roundup: Eagles vs Lions

About Andrew

Andrew has lived in Japan since 2006, spending time exploring the Tohoku region. He frequently attends Rakuten Eagles games in Sendai. You'll find him sitting along the 3rd base line drinking Guinness wearing a #46 Teppei jersey, next to a Japanese girl in a #5 Seguignol jersey.          You can follow him on Twitter if that makes you happy.